WHO SAID " IAIN GRAY FOR FIRST MINISTER?"

Who said "Iain Gray for First minister?" (Pictured above).

I distinctly remember some ramblings and mutterings and the odd "Yap" from some quarters that little known Iain Gray was heading for Bute house to become First Minister!!

Well I don't think so, not on the back of today's evidence.

The SNP today hailed a new opinion poll from TNS, published in the Herald which shows the SNP leading Labour by 10 seats at the next Holyrood election.

The extraordinary results, for a party over half way through its first term in office show the SNP at 40% on the constituency vote, 8 points above Labour and 7 points above the party’s electoral high point in the 2007 elections.

The poll of 980 people conducted between the 27th October and 3rd November shows the SNP at 40% with Labour on 32%, Tories on 13% and Lib Dems on 11.

With the SNP also maintaining an 8 point lead on the regional vote at 37% to Labour’s 29%. If the election was to be held tomorrow these results would give the SNP 54 seats in Holyrood, an increase of 7 including 37 constituency seats – up 16 from 21 in 2007, while Labour fall to a total of 44 seats.

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I have to agree with the SNP that this is an "EXTRAORDINARY POLL" when considering the amount of negative media coverage the party has revived over the past several months on issues such as, Class sizes, The Lockerbie Bomber (2 days to go Niko) GARL and of course the big one, Minimum pricing on alcohol.

Looking at the above issues then the SNP can claim credit for reducing class sizes, acting on Scotland's values for being compassionate, not reducing spending on" vital public services" by ditching GARL and acting on sound " evidence" from the police and top medical officers that minimum alcohol pricing does work.

I don't care what any pro Labour rag spews out because the facts are simple and that is the people of Scotland have great trust for this Scottish Government.

Still, I do have a chuckle to myself at the thought of Iain Gray becoming First Minister!! Aye right!!

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Okay enough about the Holyrood poll and onto a slightly more dampened Westminster poll for the SNP.

Labour - 39%
SNP - 25% (Up 7% on 2005)
Tories - 18%
Lib Dems - 12%

Convener Angus Robertson did try to put a brave face on the Westminster poll and said:

“With the Westminster election all to play for as half of Scots refuse to back Labour and wait to make up their minds the SNP will be out across the country from now to polling day working hard to ensure there is a strong Scottish block of SNP MPs to give Scotland a louder and stronger voice at Westminster."

At Westminster the SNP is well ahead of our 2005 position as the poll shows it is all to play for with 43% of Scots voters in the don’t know or undecided categories.

Okay I do agree there is plenty of votes still up for grabs but I tend to agree with Jeff's view over on SNP Tactical Voting.

" I have overheard and been party to several conversations in the last few weeks (involving non-political types) which have all involved the line 'well, only Labour or the Tories can win it' with the clear conclusion that their vote will go to either of those parties.

"That's the dagger in the heart for Team SNP and deep down, even though they'll fight it tooth and claw, they know that it will hurt them to a certain extent in the end but is also the reason why the Scottish Parliament elections are the key determinant for the party's fortunes."

"It seems the classic 3rd party squeeze is already underway with voters wanting to vote for a winner. Nick Clegg understood it when he repeated his wish to be Prime Minister and Tavish Scott understood it when he suggested he could be First Minister in the aftermath of coalition discussions back in 2007."

"The public already likes the SNP, that much is clear from the Holyrood voting intentions in this poll, so it's not the party's achievements that have to be sold so much as the party's relevance. On current evidence, it seems the only way the SNP can make the 20+ MP breakthrough that it so craves is to make Scots believe that the party that wins the highest share of the vote in Scotland will be 'the winner"

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So although I agree with Jeff's take on the Westminster front regarding the SNP, I would however add that this poll is in no way an endorsement for Labour in Scotland and is merely a protest vote against an inevitable Tory government heading into Number 10.